Working Paper

Research Blog

A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation

Accepted at the Review of Economics and Statistics Slides ECB-Cleveland Inflation Conference (May 2020) [PDF] New Draft (August 2020) [PD...

Deep Dynamic Factor Models

First Draft [ArXiv] We propose a novel deep neural net framework -- that we refer to as Deep Dynamic Factor Model (D2FM) --, to encode th...

Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility

New Draft (Apr 2020) [PDF] and slides [PDF] This paper discusses conditions for identification of structural shocks with external instrum...

The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy

Working Paper [PDF] Online Appendix [PDF] This paper studies the transmission of US monetary shocks across the globe by employing a high-...

When is growth at risk?

Prepared for the Spring 2020 edition of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity [Link] Slides [PDF] Conference Draft [PDF] This paper e...

Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability

Slides for the 5th Annual Macroprudential Conference: Macroprudential, June 2019 in Eltville [PDF] Working Paper [PDF] We evaluate whethe...

S. Miranda-Agrippino, G. Ricco - Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmis

Slides [PDF] Central banks’ decisions are a function of forecasts of macroeconomic fundamentals. Because private sector forecasts may n...

G. Ricco - A New Identification of Fiscal Shocks Based on the Information Flow

Download [PDF] [ECB wp Series] Abstract: Can discretionary increases in government spending stimulate the economy? We answer this questio...

A. Caruso, L. Reichlin, G. Ricco - The Legacy Debt and the Joint Path of Public Deficit and Debt in

Download [PDF] [European Commission Discussion Paper] Abstract: This paper studies the joint dynamics of public debt and public deficit ...

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