Working Paper

Research Blog

Information and Policy Shocks in Monetary Surprises

The GitHub Repository contains time series at monthly frequency of the high-frequency instruments for monetary policy and information...

Monetary-Fiscal Crosswinds in the European Monetary Union

BIS working paper We study the monetary-fiscal mix in the European Monetary Union. The medium and long-run effects of conventional and...

Bayesian Local Projections

We propose a Bayesian approach to Local Projections that optimally addresses the empirical bias-variance tradeoff inherent in the choice...

The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy

New Working Paper (February 2021) A Set of slides The US monetary policy propagates internationally by affecting external demand and due...

Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility

New Draft (Feb 2021) IV methods have become the leading approach to identify the effects of macroeconomic shocks. Conditions for...

Monitoring the Economy in Real-Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices

A real-time model to monitor developments in output gap, equilibrium unemployment, trend and cyclical components of inflation.

When is growth at risk?

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2020 final draft and codes [Link] Slides [PDF] Conference Draft [PDF] This paper...

A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation

Accepted at the Review of Economics and Statistics Slides ECB-Cleveland Inflation Conference (May 2020) [PDF] New Draft (August 2020)...

Deep Dynamic Factor Models

Very First Draft [ArXiv] Slides: We propose a novel deep neural net framework -- that we refer to as Deep Dynamic Factor Model (D2FM)...

Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability

Slides for the 5th Annual Macroprudential Conference: Macroprudential, June 2019 in Eltville [PDF] Working Paper [PDF] We evaluate...

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