Monitoring the Economy in Real-Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices
Paper on ArXiv A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the...
Research Blog
Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs
Accepted Draft (November 2021) IV methods have become the leading approach to identify the effects of macroeconomic shocks. Conditions...
The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
New Working Paper (February 2021) Slides for the NBER Summer Institute 2021 The US monetary policy propagates internationally by...
Information and Policy Shocks in Monetary Surprises
The GitHub Repository contains time series at monthly frequency of the high-frequency instruments for monetary policy and information...
Monetary-Fiscal Crosswinds in the European Monetary Union
BIS working paper VoxEu column "Fiscal-monetary crosswinds in the euro area: Conventional and unconventional shocks" SUERF Policy Note...
Bayesian Local Projections
We propose a Bayesian approach to Local Projections that optimally addresses the empirical bias-variance tradeoff inherent in the choice...
When is growth at risk?
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2020 final draft and codes [Link] Slides [PDF] Conference Draft [PDF] This paper...
A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation
Accepted at the Review of Economics and Statistics Slides ECB-Cleveland Inflation Conference (May 2020) [PDF] New Draft (August 2020)...
Deep Dynamic Factor Models
Very First Draft [ArXiv] Slides: We propose a novel deep neural net framework -- that we refer to as Deep Dynamic Factor Model (D2FM)...
Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability
Slides for the 5th Annual Macroprudential Conference: Macroprudential, June 2019 in Eltville [PDF] Working Paper [PDF] We evaluate...