Monetary Policy, Information and Country Risk Shocks in the Euro Area
- Jan 17, 2025
- 1 min read
Updated: Jun 12, 2025
[CEPR wp]
with E. Savini and A. Tuteja
This study examines high-frequency market responses to ECB policy announcements, providing instrumental variables to identify four types of monetary policy shocks -- conventional policy, forward guidance, quantitative easing/tightening, and asymmetric country risk -- along with information shocks. Our findings show that non-linear information effects, especially prominent during episodes of acute market stress in euro area crises, are key to resolving puzzles in macroeconomic and financial variable responses reported in studies using high-frequency European data. The IVs obtained by controlling for these effects yield, in a VAR model, dynamic responses to monetary tightenings with contractionary impacts on output and prices.
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"This is a fascinating analysis of how monetary policy, information asymmetries, and country risk shocks interact within the Euro Area. The findings highlight just how sensitive financial markets and economic stability are to unexpected shocks — whether they stem from central bank communications or sovereign risk perceptions. Interestingly, the same principle applies beyond macroeconomics: in any service industry, unexpected shocks like supply chain disruptions or sudden demand shifts can make or break operations. Take something as seemingly simple as Continental and Oriental food delivery — a sudden fuel price spike (a monetary policy ripple effect) or geopolitical risk in a supplier country can dramatically impact delivery times, costs, and customer satisfaction. Understanding and mitigating these shocks is just as crucial…