Trouble Every Day: Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Market
Four factors drive the high-frequency impact of monetary policy announcements in South Africa: affecting short-, mid-, and long-term...
Analysing inflation with semi-structural models
This chapter, prepared for the Research Handbook of Inflation, discusses semi-structural time series models for the analysis, forecast...
Bayesian Local Projections
Accepted at Review of Economics and Statistics Code [GitHub] We propose a Bayesian approach to Local Projections that optimally addresses...
Trouble Every Day: Monetary policy in emerging economies, a study of South Africa
We present a comprehensive analysis of monetary policy in South Africa by employ- ing a state-of-the-art high-frequency identification....
The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
New Working Paper (Jan 2022) US monetary policy shapes economic conditions globally due to the dominant role of the dollar in the world...
External Instrument SVAR Analysis for Noninvertible Shocks
We propose a novel external-instrument SVAR procedure to identify and estimate the impulse response functions, regardless of the shock...
Monitoring the Economy in Real-Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices
Paper on ArXiv A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the...
Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs
Journal of Monetary Economics Volume 135, April 2023, Pages 1-19 IV methods have become the leading approach to identify the effects of...
Information and Policy Shocks in Monetary Surprises
The GitHub Repository contains time series at monthly frequency of the high-frequency instruments for monetary policy and information...
When is growth at risk?
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2020 final draft [Link] Slides [PDF] Conference Draft [PDF] Replication code [Link] This...
A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation
Accepted at the Review of Economics and Statistics Slides ECB-Cleveland Inflation Conference (May 2020) [PDF] New Draft (August 2020)...
Deep Dynamic Factor Models
Very First Draft [ArXiv] Slides: We propose a novel deep neural net framework -- that we refer to as Deep Dynamic Factor Model (D2FM)...