The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
New Working Paper (Jan 2022) US monetary policy shapes economic conditions globally due to the dominant role of the dollar in the world...
External Instrument SVAR Analysis for Noninvertible Shocks
We propose a novel external-instrument SVAR procedure to identify and estimate the impulse response functions, regardless of the shock...
Monitoring the Economy in Real-Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices
Paper on ArXiv A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the...
Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs
Accepted Draft (November 2021) IV methods have become the leading approach to identify the effects of macroeconomic shocks. Conditions...
Information and Policy Shocks in Monetary Surprises
The GitHub Repository contains time series at monthly frequency of the high-frequency instruments for monetary policy and information...
Bayesian Local Projections
We propose a Bayesian approach to Local Projections that optimally addresses the empirical bias-variance tradeoff inherent in the choice...
When is growth at risk?
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2020 final draft [Link] Slides [PDF] Conference Draft [PDF] Replication code [Link] This...
A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation
Accepted at the Review of Economics and Statistics Slides ECB-Cleveland Inflation Conference (May 2020) [PDF] New Draft (August 2020)...
Deep Dynamic Factor Models
Very First Draft [ArXiv] Slides: We propose a novel deep neural net framework -- that we refer to as Deep Dynamic Factor Model (D2FM)...
Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability
Slides for the 5th Annual Macroprudential Conference: Macroprudential, June 2019 in Eltville [PDF] Working Paper [PDF] We evaluate...
S. Miranda-Agrippino, G. Ricco - Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmis
Slides [PDF] Central banks’ decisions are a function of forecasts of macroeconomic fundamentals. Because private sector forecasts may...
G. Ricco - A New Identification of Fiscal Shocks Based on the Information Flow
Download [PDF] [ECB wp Series] Abstract: Can discretionary increases in government spending stimulate the economy? We answer this...
A. Caruso, L. Reichlin, G. Ricco - The Legacy Debt and the Joint Path of Public Deficit and Debt in
Download [PDF] [European Commission Discussion Paper] Abstract: This paper studies the joint dynamics of public debt and public deficit...