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Research Blog
Monitoring the Economy in Real-Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices
Paper on ArXiv A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the...
Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs
Journal of Monetary Economics Volume 135, April 2023, Pages 1-19 IV methods have become the leading approach to identify the effects of...
Information and Policy Shocks in Monetary Surprises
The GitHub Repository contains time series at monthly frequency of the high-frequency instruments for monetary policy and information...
When is growth at risk?
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2020 final draft [Link] Slides [PDF] Conference Draft [PDF] Replication code [Link] This...
A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation
Accepted at the Review of Economics and Statistics Slides ECB-Cleveland Inflation Conference (May 2020) [PDF] New Draft (August 2020)...
Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability
Slides for the 5th Annual Macroprudential Conference: Macroprudential, June 2019 in Eltville [PDF] Working Paper [PDF] We evaluate...
S. Miranda-Agrippino, G. Ricco - Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmis
Slides [PDF] Central banks’ decisions are a function of forecasts of macroeconomic fundamentals. Because private sector forecasts may...
G. Ricco - A New Identification of Fiscal Shocks Based on the Information Flow
Download [PDF] [ECB wp Series] Abstract: Can discretionary increases in government spending stimulate the economy? We answer this...
A. Caruso, L. Reichlin, G. Ricco - The Legacy Debt and the Joint Path of Public Deficit and Debt in
Download [PDF] [European Commission Discussion Paper] Abstract: This paper studies the joint dynamics of public debt and public deficit...
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