A. Caruso, L. Reichlin, G. Ricco - The Legacy Debt and the Joint Path of Public Deficit and Debt in
Abstract: This paper studies the joint dynamics of public debt and public deficit in the euro area for the period 1981-2013 and compute projections up to 2020. We show that, since 2009, public debt and public deficit have been negatively related. On the basis of a counter-factual simulation that conditions on past correlations with a large number of macroeconomic indicators and the observed GDP path since 2008 we find that the negative relation is anomalous with respect to previous historical experience. In contrast, private savings and private debt since 2008 have behaved in line with past experience. We define and estimate the “legacy debt” of the 2008 crisis and show that, if GDP and inflation will behave according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection, by 2020 it will still account for 15% of total public debt.
https://livecasinouksite.com got me thinking about how often headline economic figures get framed as a game of chance, and this paper’s finding that deficit and debt turned negatively related after 2009 really drives that home. The estimate that legacy debt will still make up 15% of total public debt by 2020 feels like the kind of number that should shape budget debates far more than it does. It makes me wonder how much of today’s fiscal discussion is still quietly paying for a crisis most people assume is behind us.
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